War and Pretend Peace

Sometimes I am described as someone who "likes the war". As if by some supreme logic that someone who supports war is someone that enjoys it to any alternative.

Sure I would enjoy the alternative. In a perfect world, a jew, Adolf Hitler, Osama Bin Laden, and a slav would all enjoy a beer on the patio together. To those that do a little bit of thinking this seems as probable as a bunch of dogs playing poker.

The only way to really sort out the world's issues is to move everyone over the age of ten to the moon. This would leave the young humans left on the planet largely unaware of religion, borders, etc. Additionally it would leave what is left of humanity without many means of killing each other.

But this Lord of the Flies scenario does not necessarily mean that the culture that would develop would be any more healthy, tolerant and peace-loving.

For these reasons and many more, we must sadly forget about forging a utopian society using the next generation as guinea pigs.

So what's the alternative?

Well, it is most likely a little bit of war here and there. A lot of people seem to be the modern equivalent of Neville Chamberlain and thinking we can all sit down and drink a beer with people that would like to see us dead. In the meantime, they also bitch about the battles we did not fight, such as Rwanda, Darfur and Lebanon as the most recent example.

In addition to the Chamberlains, we have the Duchovnys, the people that think George Bush is something like a wiser version of Satan, that has been a part of a conspiracy dating from before 2000. Yes, the man they like to deride for his inability to form proper sentences has devised a master plan to fuck the world over. Good job on the thought patterns there.

Why Iraq?



An Intelligence Failure

Yes, it must be said that this story begins with an intelligence and PR failure. WMD's just weren't there.

What our ("our" as in the entire western world) so-called intelligence services failed to see was that if Saddam was to admit that he was effectively emasculated, somebody would have killed him. So of course the guy is not going to let the UN run in there and show the world (and the citizens that hate him) that he does not have jack shit to kill them with.

But the public relations department ran with it. How else would you convince the common folk to go to war if there was not a clear and present danger? The problem was that eventually everyone figured out the war did not go down as advertised.

The Bush administration sold a bunch of people a vacuum and told them it would do their laundry. A vacuum has many uses, but it needs to be accurately described in order to not create a bunch of unhappy customers.

It is not about oil

The Iraq war is about oil as much as it is about Pez.

If you think about just who is producing oil, Iraq seems like small peanuts in the global oil market. Especially when you consider that there is happens to be oil in other places as well. So shut up about the war being about oil.

But we need to scream and yell at Bush about something, don't we?

Yes, sure. If you want to have an arguing point that pushes Bush in a bad light, you could say his motivations for war were mostly grown out of a hatred of Hussein passed on from his father. It would indeed be foolish to get the army after a guy just because you do not like the way he looks. At the same time, it does show consistent and predictable policy, however insane it was.

We could have had peace! We could have just sat here!



It's not like it's the first time this has happened...

Everybody seems to forget Saddam is a total meathead and just generally a bad guy that we've tried to kill before.

Saddam had started a war with Kuwait ages ago and was going to legitimately get booted out of power. Even Saudi Arabia and Canada participated in that one. In the end it was decided to leave it up to a coup. It is unfortunate we did not kick out the government when everyone was on-side. Oh well.

Nobody likes us. This mess was started by being friendly to asshole dictators.

Osama does not like America cause it's cozy with the Saudis. Iran does not like America because it was cosy with the Shah. Maybe now is the time that somebody actually tries to support some half-democratic patched together governments in the mideast instead of the usual jerks that we make deals with?

The battles we do not fight haunt us later

Think Darfur. Think Rwanda. Hell we were only there half the time when all that shit in the Balkans was going down.

Now with all that shit going on in North Korea, people everywhere are wondering why we did not take care of that crazy bastard of a ruler in the 1950's when we had the chance.

In an alternative future where we did not invade Iraq, maybe in 50 years people would wonder why we decided to tolerate Saddam Hussein for as long as we did? The dude is sitting on a shitload of oil and he was already known to spend his money on weapons and palaces. What the hell would he have spent it on if we dropped the embargo and actually traded with the guy?

As the Trojans who let the horse in the gates quickly found out, do not expect free gifts from people that hate your guts. Germany, one of the largest critics of the Iraq war, is finding bombs on its doorstep anyways. This in some respect debunks the myth that if you stay out of the mideast and appease the crazies, crazies will cease to bother you.

While it is lamentable that the reasons put forward to pursue war in Iraq do not adequately put America in its desired role as a just combatant, it could be said that history shows a story of a definitely unjust adversary. A story of a dictator that squashed dissent in ways unheard of even in China.

The leaders of the insurgency have not been much better. What would be a legimate movement has actually been led by a bunch of foreigners, the first being Abu_Musab_al-Zarqawi, known for blowing up his fellow Jordanians.

Was the leader of the Free French from Poland? No. Should the leaders of the Iraqi insurency be muslim extremists from other countries? No. But if news can be trusted, that is what is happening. And that's bogus.

If you want to sit around, smoke up, vote NDP and watch the western world get picked apart by crazies funded by crazies, taught by crazies and harboured by crazies, so be it.

Otherwise, screw pacificism.

Comments...

leo - debunking sheldonism

Iraq has plenty of oil. Looking at current production numbers has little to do with oil reserves. It's also quite poorly explored, so who knows what kind of oil is there. Even the most pessimistic estimate say around 100 billion barrels. That's almost 7 times more than the discovery in the gulf that you linked to. [Link] > But we need to scream and yell at Bush about something, don't we?

Yes, and not because we are whiners, but because the whole iraq war was a lie from the start. Don't give me that shit about it being an intelligence failure. The intelligence knew perfectly well that there were no WMDs in Iraq. The Bush administration just ignored that because they needed an excuse to invade.


> Everybody seems to forget Saddam is a total meathead and just generally a bad guy that we've tried to kill before.

No. We attacked only because he was threatening our oil source from Kuwait. The US didn't want to kill him at all, in fact they're the reason he didn't get steamrolled by Iran. (Oh yeah, and they also gave him his chemical weapons, but hey, we'll overlook that little mistake).

Anyway, if we had the policy of going after bad guys, target #1 should have been Kim Jong-il. Sure we had the chance 50 years ago, but obviously it wasn't that easy, since we didn't win.


> In an alternative future where we did not invade Iraq, maybe in 50 years people would wonder why we decided to tolerate Saddam Hussein for as long as we did?

Sure, and maybe in 50 years we also realize that we should have killed santa claus, since he's now delivering anthrax instead of presents. Seriously, if we do this to every dictator, there'd be another world war going on right now.
By my count there are currently 20 dictators in the world. They're all pretty evil, so should we just attack them now to be on the safe side?
http://en.wik ipedia.org/wiki/List _of_dictators


> Should the leaders of the Iraqi insurency be muslim extremists from other countries? No.

Sure. Why not? The fact is there is a lot of support for the rebellion in Iraq, and while some of the leaders might not be iraqis, a bunch of the rebels are.

sheldong - still not sold

About oil:

I don't buy that the entire purpose of the war was because "Americans love SUVs". People talk as if the whole fucking country will run on Iraqi oil. Fully exploiting Iraqi potential is YEARS away, and by that time we'll all be driving PHEVs anyways. It is about oil in some regards, but saying its about oil solely for american consumption and supporting the american lifestyle is a little shortsighted.

Abo ut Bush:

I don't buy that the Bush AND the Blair administration are so vile, evil, insidious as to start a war without someone scaring the living shit out of them.

I think that comparing Kim Jong-il and Saddam is hard because Saddam definitely has more means to get crazier weapons. Sell some oil illegally to its screwed in the head neighbours. What the hell does Kim Jong-il have for resources? Also, China is a big question mark as you never really know what they are going to say if you start bombing Pyongyang.

About dictators:

Yes, but there are dictators of banana republics then there was Iraq and North Korea. Totally different ballgame.

About extremists:

Yes, even though a lot of leaders are foreign a lot of the insurgents themselves are Iraqis. But so are a lot of the police and local military. And I'm willing to bet that a foreign leader is a sign that the majority of locals are rather optimistic about their new government.

leo - .

Having enough cheap oil for the US is beside the point. They don't care what Joe Schmoe is paying for the gallon. But a source of american controlled oil brings in massive profits to the american oil companies. The same companies that the bush family happens to be closely affiliated with.
Of course, oil is not the only thing. Just the rebuilding contracts are huge, and are mostly going to american companies.

About Bush being scared. Oh c'mon! A small country with no evidence of having more than a few AKs is a threat to a massive superpower halfway around the world? Bullshit bullshit bullshit. They didn't have any missiles, they didn't have any nukes. North korea has both of those, but they didn't have them when Iraq was invaded. Maybe North Korea would have been a hell of a better place to do some preventative invading. But of course, then the US would be sitting on a worthless island, instead of a desert full of oil.

Saddam had more resources to buy weapons, but he also has no reason to use them on the US. Saddam wasn't anti-american to any great degree. He knew it was dumb to provoke the americans. The most he would have done is try to take out Iran again. Kim Jong-il is nutso anti-american and would like nothign better than to throw whatever he's got at them.

Yes, the dictators of the banana republics have less power, but a lot of them are just as evil. We were talking about basing invasions on the evil scale. Well there are plenty of dictators running an ethnic laundromat that we could have taken out first.

Of course the military is local. Do you think they would hire Iranians? If most of the Iraqis were so optimistic, I don't think the situation would still be so bad. Hell, it's gotten worse since the start. Now they're actually well organized.

sheldong - kim and oil

The idea that American oil companies are going to make a killing is a bit of a pipe dream. Look at the list of oil companies by size [Link] and you'll see that a lot of countries have nationalized oil reserves. All much much larger than Evil Exxon and their buddies. The Americans can not force Iraq to not nationalize its production like Saudi Arabia, China, Venezuela have. Then, it is Iraq making a shitload of money.

Now I'm not saying some dodgy dealings won't happen, but such things happened before anyways and would have continued to happen. And the stuff about rebuilding contracts is correct, a typical giveaway to political allies.

When criticizing Bush, people first like to parody his speech skills and liken him to somebody that was pushed through school. Then they turn around, claim he knew there were absolutely no WMD's yet decided to invade anyways to protect his own self-interest. As if he's a mix of both Dr Evil and a baboon.

What is more likely? Oil-rich dictator trading goods for weapons with neighbouring countries, or starving North Korea using strained resources to develop the bomb. In this view North Korea seemed quite harmless. A very bad assessment that led to quite the fuck up, but many would have made the same decision. (Taiwan is the island, but there might be a bit of a mix-up there as well)

And it makes sense to knock off the dictators with resources first. Heck, if Germany went into USSR first and managed to utilize their resources before going after the rest of the world [Link] then their chances might have been better.

Does the (past) existence of the IRA mean that most irish want to blow up the UK?

If some lunatic picks up an RPG and makes a few potshots at American troops it doesn't mean a referendum was held. And the elections did go down quite well considering.

Merriman - Bush

Everyone should realize that the president is mainly a PR guy. Bush, doubly so. Bush's aides tell him what to think, what to say, when to take a crap. Everyone blames bush, but in reality, Cheney runs far more of the country than he does.

Iraq did not have WMD's, and it didn't really have the channels to purchase them. In fact, most of Iraq's weapons were left over from what the Americans gave them when the US was scared of Iran.

Iraq also has a shitload of oil, but the wells were run so fast that the pressure has decreased. None of the oil wells will be able to produce high volumes until the pressure builds back up again, and who knows how long that will take? Plus, I'm not convinced that the war was about the oil anyway. If the US really wanted the oil, they'd just buy it on the world market. If Iraq ever gets their oil industry going but refuses to sell to the US, it leads to surplusses from other countries that the US can buy.

So what's the war about? We'll probably never know. Probably some huge crockpot of reasons. Wait, how much money did Haliburton make? How much of the US does Cheney run? Yeah, my money's on Cheney.

Tim - what Leo said

Leo is correct about oil Sheldon. Iraq holds roughly 1/4 of the world's conventional oil reserves (conventional meaning nice, on-shore, sweet, low viscosity, cheap-to-produce oil that countries like Canada, the US, and Venezuela are running low on). No matter who profits from it - be it Iraqis, or those evil american oil companies everybody loves to hate - its in the best interest of the US for Iraq to be politically stable and trade-friendly.

O il wasn't the only reason the US went to Iraq, but saying it didn't play a part is just plain ignorant.

oh - regarding pressure in oil wells, if you effed up your well by sucking too hard on it, then you'd better call in a friendly service company like Halliburton to fix it (or find some local engrs and equipment...but good luck with that in Iraq). Otherwise, if you've got lots of money, you can always just re-drill the well. Yay

sheldong - oil shmoil

I'm not saying that oil wasn't on anybodys minds at the time. I'm saying that I don't believe that the entire purpose can be based on oil itself.

I think what it comes down to is what parts of the following scenario you believe are true:

Rove: "We're sucking ass in the polls/economically. The whole 9/11 plot and Afganistan thing went down well but now the public is getting bored and critical of us. We could use a war right now!"
Bush: "Yeah. My dad hates Saddam, and so does Jesus."
Cheney: "Halliburton could use a boost, and my oil stocks aren't performing well enough for my liking. I say we go for it."
Rumsfeld: "You know, we should probably get somebody in the CIA to make up some shit about weapons of mass destruction."
Powel l: "Right. And I'll try to sell the plan to the UN."
Bolton: "Ah fuck the UN anyhow. We'll go in anyways."
Rove: "Yes, exactly. Fuck Saddam, Fuck the UN. I'll figure out some way to spin this."
Bush: "How do you spell invasion?"
Rice: "God bless America!" (evil laughter)
Blair: "And Britain! Don't leave us out!"


Sure, this is a little over the top, but if you believe everything you hear about the war then it adequately summarizes EXACTLY what happened in many people's minds.

Also, if they wanted all that oil in Tito-style stability, they could have just dropped the embargo and cited humanitarian reasons.

Or wait. Maybe that was something like the oil for food programme. That went down well.


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